Bruce Schneier pointed out a great essay, “Why No More 9/11s?” by Timothy Noah on Slate. It’s long, but worth the read.
The essay is divided into eight parts that discuss the various theories as to why there has not been a major terrorist attack on American soil since 9/11:
- The Terrorists-Are-Dumb Theory: 9/11 was a lucky shot, being a big-time terrorist is hard.
- The Near-Enemy Theory: It’s easier to attack the closer enemy (Iraq, Afghanistan) than far (US soil).
- The Melting-Pot Theory: The US has been more successful in assimilating Muslims into society.
- The Burden-Of-Success Theory: It’s hard to do better than 9/11, so don’t.
- The Flypaper Theory: It’s easier to attack Americans in the Middle East than in the US.
- The He-Kept-Us-Safe Theory: Part of why George Bush will be considered the worst president in United States history.
- The Electoral-Cycles Theory: (Non-)Correlation of terrorist attacks with US electoral events.
- The Time-Space Theory: Applying rational-choice theory to terrorism.